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CEEH Scientific Report No. 1

Description of the CEEH integrated ‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’ modelling framework system

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ceeh chain

Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the general CEEH methodology with descriptions of individual models and components used in the CEEH model framework and definition of data exchange between the models/modules.
The Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH) model framework system simulates air pollution from energy production and consumption and its damaging impact on human health and the environment, and finally includes the external costs of damage in economic optimizations of future Danish energy systems.  The modelling system is based on a number of individual models and data sets. Each model requires a different type of input data, to perform its part of the simulations.

The CEEH model system consists of:
  • An energy optimization model, Balmorel, which finds the cheapest investment pattern to accomplish the futures demand for energy capacity.
  • Atmospheric Chemical Transport (ACT) models, simulating atmospheric dispersion and chemical transformations of air pollution. 
  • Health effect and cost models, modelling the health impacts of a given air pollution scenario and long term effects of death rates on demography, and modelling the unit cost of a health case.
The first phase of CEEH’s work has been to adjust the models performances and output formats to fit into the CEEH model system:
  • An energy technology catalogue including air pollution emissions has been made. The catalogue is based on the energy catalogue from the Danish energy agency.
  • Balmorel has been extended to include externality costs in energy system optimization, and will further be extended to include more sectors than power generation, e.g. road traffic, and a domestic heat saving option. 
  • The ACT’s have been improved to work with higher spatial resolution and better performance of numerical schemes.
  • In order to select air pollution species and types of health damages a thorough literature study has been done. Relevant concentration – response functions has been determined.
  • A new health effect and cost model is under construction. This model differs markedly from previous long term health cost models in that it takes demographic development into consideration. 
A demonstration phase CEEH system combining Balmorel and the externality costs from the EVA (Economic Valuation of Air Pollution) system has been set up. Hereby it has been possible to test the integrated approach used in CEEH. This EVA line system, as a by-product, estimated the health costs related to pollution from all different Danish sectors (also non-CEEH sectors such as ship traffic and agriculture).
 

Resumé på dansk

Formålet med denne rapport er en præsentation af CEEH metodologier med beskrivelse af de enkelte modeltyper, der anvendes i CEEH modelsystemet og definitioner af dataudvekslingen mellem de forskellige modeller og moduler.
Center for Energi, Miljø og Sundhed (CEEH) modelsystemet simulerer atmosfærisk spredning af luftforureningen fra energiproduktion og forbrænding og dens skadelige påvirkninger på menneskers sundhed og på miljøet. De eksterne omkostninger til samfundet ved disse påvirkninger beregnes og indregnes i økonomiske optimeringer af fremtidige danske energisystem. Model beregningerne er baseret på en række individuelle modeller og data sæt, der kræver forskellige typer af input til at udføre deres del af simuleringerne.

CEEH modelsystemet består af:
  • En-energi-optimerings-model, Balmorel, som finder der mest fordelagtige investerings mønstre, der imødekommer fremtidens efterspørgsel efter energikapacitet.
  • Atmosfærisk-kemiske transportmodeller (ACT), der simulerer atmosfærisk spredning og kemiske omdannelser af luftforurening. 
  • Sundheds-effekt- og omkostnings-modeller, der beregner sundhedskonsekvenser i den danske befolkning (og befolkningen i omkringliggende lande) for et givent forureningsscenarie, samt langtidseffekter i befolkningstal, grundet ændret levealder.
Første fase af CEEH’s arbejde har bestået i at tilpasse modellerne og deres output til CEEH’s modelsystem:
  • Et energiteknologikatalog, der inkluderer luftforureningsemissioner er blevet udarbejdet. Kataloget er baseret på energistyrelsens energikatalog fra 2010. 
  • Balmorel er blevet udvidet til at inkludere eksterne omkostninger i energisystem optimeringerne, og vil blive udvidet til at inkludere flere sektorer end kraftværkerne (f.eks. trafik sektoren), samt et modul, der inkluderer investering i varmebesparelser i private boliger.
  • ACT modellerne er blevet forbedret med højere rumlig opløsning og bedre numeriske skemaer.
  • Koncentration–respons funktioner for helbredseffekter af relevante luft-forurenings-komponenter er blevet bestemt på baggrund af et omfattende litteratur studie.
  • En ny avanceret sundheds-effekt- og omkostnings-model er ved at blive udviklet. Modellen tager blandt andet demografisk udvikling med i betragtning.
En test-optimering hvor eksternalitets-omkostninger var regnet med blev udført med Balmorel. Beregninger af sundhedseksternaliteter fra forskellige danske sektorer blev testet med EVA-systemet (Economic Valuation of Airpollution), som er et integreret modelsystem, der anvendes i CEEH. 
 

Colophon


Serial title:
Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Report Series

Title:
Description of the CEEH integrated ‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’ modelling framework system

Editors: Alexander Baklanov, Eigil Kaas
Contributing Authors (for affiliations see “project partners”):
AU: T. Sigsgaard, J. H. Bønløkke 
DMI: A. Baklanov, R. Nuterman, U. S. Korsholm, B. Armstrup
NERI, AU: J. Brandt, A. Gross, L. M. Frohn, J. H. Christensen, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, C. Geels
NBI, UoC: E. Kaas, M.-L. Siggaard-Andersen, B. Sørensen
RISØ DTU: K. Karrlson, O. Balyk
SIF, SDU: H. Brønnum-Hansen, E. M. Flachs
CAST, SDU: J. Sørensen, M.Kruse, B.Sætterstrøm

Responsible institution:
Danish Meteorological Institute and University of Copenhagen
 
Language:
English

Keywords: Energy system analysis, integrated modeling, optimization, energy, environment, atmospheric pollution, meteorology, climate, health, externality, CEEH, Denmark, energy scenario, Balmorel, DEHM, Enviro-HIRLAM

Url:
www.ceeh.dk\CEEH_Reports\Report_1

ISSN: ISSN 1904-7495

Website: 
www.ceeh.dk

Copyright: Any use of the content of this report should be cited as: In A. Baklanov, E. Kaas (2010) CEEH scientific report No 1, Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH) report series.



The CEEH Scientific Reports

The Centre for Energy, Environment and Health report series constitutes documentation, validation and scientific results from CEEH. The report series consists of following reports:

CEEH report (working) titles and release dates

No. CEEH Scientific Report (Working title) Release Date
  first version
1
Description of the CEEH integrated ‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’ modelling framework system Jan 2011
2
( Document comparing the importance of different emissions scenarios (EDGAR, IPCC, and EMEP) )
Oct 2012
3
Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution at the National Level  using the EVA Model System
Mar 2011
4
( Demonstration of full CEEH chain – the EVA line )
Oct 2012
5
Description of the HIA line in the CEEH integrated modelling chain
Sep 2012
6
( Demonstration of full CEEH chain – the HIA line ) Combined with CEEH report no 5

7a
Description of the CEEH health effects model - selection of concentration-response functions
Nov 2011
7b
Laboratory tests of toxicity of combustion particles
Oct 2012
8
( Final report containing all results )
Oct 2012
9
Extended abstracts from International conference on Energy, Environment and Health – Held by CEEH, REBECa and CEESA
July 2011
10
CEEH's beregninger af helbredsomkostninger fra luftforurening i Klimakommissionens scenarier (in danish)
Nov 2011




Dato: 20-Sep-2012