CEEH
Scientific Report No. 1
Description of the CEEH integrated
‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’
modelling framework system
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Summary
The purpose of this report is to present the general CEEH methodology with descriptions of individual models and components used in the CEEH model framework and definition of data exchange between the models/modules.The Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH) model framework system simulates air pollution from energy production and consumption and its damaging impact on human health and the environment, and finally includes the external costs of damage in economic optimizations of future Danish energy systems. The modelling system is based on a number of individual models and data sets. Each model requires a different type of input data, to perform its part of the simulations.
The CEEH model system consists of:
- An energy optimization model, Balmorel, which finds the cheapest investment pattern to accomplish the futures demand for energy capacity.
- Atmospheric Chemical Transport (ACT) models, simulating atmospheric dispersion and chemical transformations of air pollution.
- Health effect and cost models, modelling the health impacts of a given air pollution scenario and long term effects of death rates on demography, and modelling the unit cost of a health case.
- An energy technology catalogue including air pollution emissions has been made. The catalogue is based on the energy catalogue from the Danish energy agency.
- Balmorel has been extended to include externality costs in energy system optimization, and will further be extended to include more sectors than power generation, e.g. road traffic, and a domestic heat saving option.
- The ACT’s have been improved to work with higher spatial resolution and better performance of numerical schemes.
- In order to select air pollution species and types of health damages a thorough literature study has been done. Relevant concentration – response functions has been determined.
- A new health effect and cost model is under construction. This model differs markedly from previous long term health cost models in that it takes demographic development into consideration.
Resumé på dansk
Formålet med denne rapport er en præsentation af CEEH metodologier med beskrivelse af de enkelte modeltyper, der anvendes i CEEH modelsystemet og definitioner af dataudvekslingen mellem de forskellige modeller og moduler.Center for Energi, Miljø og Sundhed (CEEH) modelsystemet simulerer atmosfærisk spredning af luftforureningen fra energiproduktion og forbrænding og dens skadelige påvirkninger på menneskers sundhed og på miljøet. De eksterne omkostninger til samfundet ved disse påvirkninger beregnes og indregnes i økonomiske optimeringer af fremtidige danske energisystem. Model beregningerne er baseret på en række individuelle modeller og data sæt, der kræver forskellige typer af input til at udføre deres del af simuleringerne.
CEEH modelsystemet består af:
- En-energi-optimerings-model, Balmorel, som finder der mest fordelagtige investerings mønstre, der imødekommer fremtidens efterspørgsel efter energikapacitet.
- Atmosfærisk-kemiske transportmodeller (ACT), der simulerer atmosfærisk spredning og kemiske omdannelser af luftforurening.
- Sundheds-effekt- og omkostnings-modeller, der beregner sundhedskonsekvenser i den danske befolkning (og befolkningen i omkringliggende lande) for et givent forureningsscenarie, samt langtidseffekter i befolkningstal, grundet ændret levealder.
- Et energiteknologikatalog, der inkluderer luftforureningsemissioner er blevet udarbejdet. Kataloget er baseret på energistyrelsens energikatalog fra 2010.
- Balmorel er blevet udvidet til at inkludere eksterne omkostninger i energisystem optimeringerne, og vil blive udvidet til at inkludere flere sektorer end kraftværkerne (f.eks. trafik sektoren), samt et modul, der inkluderer investering i varmebesparelser i private boliger.
- ACT modellerne er blevet forbedret med højere rumlig opløsning og bedre numeriske skemaer.
- Koncentration–respons funktioner for helbredseffekter af relevante luft-forurenings-komponenter er blevet bestemt på baggrund af et omfattende litteratur studie.
- En ny avanceret sundheds-effekt- og omkostnings-model er ved at blive udviklet. Modellen tager blandt andet demografisk udvikling med i betragtning.
Colophon
Serial title:
Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Report Series
Title:
Description of the CEEH integrated ‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’ modelling framework system
Editors: Alexander Baklanov, Eigil Kaas
Contributing Authors (for affiliations see “project partners”):
AU: T. Sigsgaard, J. H. Bønløkke
DMI: A. Baklanov, R. Nuterman, U. S. Korsholm, B. Armstrup
NERI, AU: J. Brandt, A. Gross, L. M. Frohn, J. H. Christensen, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, C. Geels
NBI, UoC: E. Kaas, M.-L. Siggaard-Andersen, B. Sørensen
RISØ DTU: K. Karrlson, O. Balyk
SIF, SDU: H. Brønnum-Hansen, E. M. Flachs
CAST, SDU: J. Sørensen, M.Kruse, B.Sætterstrøm
Responsible institution:
Danish Meteorological Institute and University of Copenhagen
Language:
English
Keywords: Energy system analysis, integrated modeling, optimization, energy, environment, atmospheric pollution, meteorology, climate, health, externality, CEEH, Denmark, energy scenario, Balmorel, DEHM, Enviro-HIRLAM
Url:
www.ceeh.dk\CEEH_Reports\Report_1
ISSN: ISSN 1904-7495
Website:
www.ceeh.dk
Copyright: Any use of the content of this report should be cited as: In A. Baklanov, E. Kaas (2010) CEEH scientific report No 1, Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH) report series.