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CEEH Scientific Report No. 5

Description of the HIA line in the CEEH integrated modelling chain

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Resumé (in Danish)

Formålet med denne rapport er at beskrive ”HIA-linjen” i den integrerede modelkæde af energi-miljø-helbred og omkostninger i CEEH. I CEEH er udviklet en række modeller, der i en samlet kæde kan estimere helbredskonsekvenser og heraf afledte samfundsmæssige omkostninger af udledning af luftforurening belyst ved scenarier for fremtidig energiproduktion i Danmark. Den anvendte metodologi kaldes “Impact Pathway”, og består i en selvstændig modellering af alle fremtidige udledninger af luftforurening i Balmorel-modellen, en efterfølgende modellering af transport af og kemisk omdannelse af den udledte forurening i en af to forskellige Atmosfærisk Kemisk Transport modeller - enten NERI eller DMI-modellen. De modellerede koncentrationsfelter, udglattes henover de 98 danske kommuner, og de resulterende helbredseffekter kan derefter beregnes i den udviklede sundhedskonsekvensmodel (Health Impact Assessment model). Dernæst kan de samfundsmæssige omkostninger beregnes og tilknyttes de i Balmorel-modellen beregnede udledninger, således at der kan beregnes en samlet enhedsomkostning for luftforurening til brug for yderligere modelleringer af fremtidig energiproduktion i Danmark.
CEEH HIA-linjen præsenterer en ny måde at modellere og beregne samfundsmæssige helbredsomkostninger fra luftforurening på, i det der her direkte modelleres både demografisk udvikling, luftforurening og sygelighed og dødelighed i en integreret model. Modelleringen af de samlede helbreds konsekvenser ved dansk udledt luftforurening i perioden fra 2005 til 2030, giver 2.000 ekstra lungekræftdødsfald, 3.950 ekstra hjertesygdomsdødsfald, 7.375 dødsfald fra blodprop i hjernen, 1.750 KOL-dødsfald og 11,475 for tidlige dødsfald af andre årsager. Opgjort som tabte leveår finder vi et tab af 163.075 år i den modellerede 25 års periode. De samfundsmæssige omkostninger beløber sig i perioden til 456 mio. kr. for lungekræft, 662 mio. kr. for hjertesygdom, 687 mio. kr. for blodprop i hjernen, 140 mio. kr. for KOL, 202 mio. DKK for død af andre årsager, og i alt 2.149 mio. kr. i perioden fra 2005 to 2030.

Summary

The purpose of this report is to describe the different components constituting the HIA-line in the CEEH integrated energy-environment-health-cost modelling. The CEEH framework consists of a number of independent models linked together to assess the impacts and associated costs of emissions from energy production on human health. The HIA-line carries out assessment of the health impact and associated costs of human exposure to air pollution from future scenarios for energy production in Denmark. The methodology employed is the impact pathway, where future emissions from all Danish air pollution sources are modelled in the Balmorel model; the emitted air pollution is then dispersed and chemically transformed in time and space by either the NERI or the DMI Atmospheric Chemical Transport models. The resulting concentration fields of air pollution are then averaged to give municipality based levels, and the resulting health impact and associated societal cost of the Danish population is modelled in the Health Impact Assessment model. The social costs associated with air pollution exposure are then converted from the modelled exposure costs to emission costs to be fed into the Balmorel model as additional energy production costs. The CEEH HIA-line presents a novel way of modelling health related consequences of air pollution, as it directly models, the demography, air pollution, morbidity and mortality, in a dynamic and integrated setup. When modelling the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in the period from 2005 to 2030 we find 2,000 extra deaths of lung cancer, 3,950 deaths of heart disease, 7,375 deaths of stroke and 1,750 deaths of COPD, and 11.475 premature deaths, amounting to 163,075 lost life years in the modelled 25-year period. The health related social costs sums up to 60.8m € for lung cancer, 88.3m € for heart disease, 91.6m € for stroke, 18.7m € for COPD, 26.9m € for other cause mortality and in total 282.5m € throughout the period from 2005 to 2030.

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Serial title:
Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Report series

Title:
Description of the HIA line in the CEEH integrated modelling chain
 
Sub title:
CEEH Scientific Report No. 5

Authors:
SIF, SDU: E. M. Flachs
DEOM, AU: J. H. Bønløkke, T. Sigsgaard 
DMI: R. Nuterman, A. Baklanov, B. Amstrup
NERI, AU: J. Brandt, L. M. Frohn
NBI, UoC: E. Kaas, M.-L. Siggaard-Andersen
CAST, SDU: J. Sørensen, M. Kruse, B. Sætterstrøm
IFSV, UoC: H. Brønnum-Hansen


Responsible institution:
National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark
 
Language:
English

Keywords: Integrated modelling, energy, environment, air pollution, health, externality, CEEH, Denmark, energy scenario, Health Impact Assessment

URL:  http://www.ceeh.dk/CEEH_Reports/Report_5

ISSN: ISSN 1904-7495
 
Version: 1.0 2012-09-01

Website:
www.ceeh.dk

Copyright: Any use of the content of this report should be cited as: EM Flachs (Ed), Description of the HIA line in the CEEH integrated modelling chain, CEEH Scientific Report No. 5, Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH) report series, September 2012, pp. 60.



The CEEH Scientific Reports

The Centre for Energy, Environment and Health report series constitutes documentation, validation and scientific results from CEEH. The report series consists of following reports:

CEEH report (working) titles and release dates

No. CEEH Scientific Report (Working title) Release Date
  first version
1
Description of the CEEH integrated ‘Energy-Environment-Health-Cost’ modelling framework system Jan 2011
2
( Document comparing the importance of different emissions scenarios (EDGAR, IPCC, and EMEP) )
Oct 2012
3
Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution at the National Level  using the EVA Model System
Mar 2011
4
( Demonstration of full CEEH chain – the EVA line )
Oct 2012
5
Description of the HIA line in the CEEH integrated modelling chain
Sep 2012
6
( Demonstration of full CEEH chain – the HIA line ) Combined with CEEH report no 5

7a
Description of the CEEH health effects model - selection of concentration-response functions
Nov 2011
7b
Laboratory tests of toxicity of combustion particles
Oct 2012
8
( Final report containing all results )
Oct 2012
9
Extended abstracts from International conference on Energy, Environment and Health – Held by CEEH, REBECa and CEESA
July 2011
10
CEEH's beregninger af helbredsomkostninger fra luftforurening i Klimakommissionens scenarier (in danish)
Nov 2011




Dato: 20-Sep-2012