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Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, 10-12 March 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark

Economic optimization of the Danish energy systems

-through minimization of direct costs as well as indirect costs related to air born pollution and anthropogenic climate change


Eigil Kaas1, M. S. Andersen2, A Baklanov3, J Brandt2, H Brønnum-Hansen4, J. H. Christensen2, L. M. Frohn2, A Groos3, K Karlsson5, M.-L. Siggaard-Andersen1, T. Sigsgaard6, J. Sørensen7

1)    Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
2)   National Environmental Research Institute, Århus University
3)    Danish Meteorological Institute
4)    National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark
5)    RISØ DTU, National Institute for Sustainable Energy
6)    Institute of Public Health, Århus University
7)    CAST, University of Southern Denmark

See abstract -->

See presentation in pdf


CEEH is sponsoredby the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007


Main output:


  • Economically optimized future energy systems for parts of Northern Europe at different time horizons.
  • Global externality costs related to the local emissions are included in the optimization process. Considered so far: health and global climate.

Plus a large number of bi-products



Inputs

Main input:

  • Economic growth
  • Global energy prizes

Additional inputs:

  • State of the art energy technology catalogue
  • Population and health data, local demography (including future assumptions)
  • IPCC scenario for global/hemispheric particle emissions according to scenario A1B.
  • Global/hemispheric/regional weather evolution in year 2000.
  • Global “climate cost” of one kilogram of CO2 emission.
  • IPCC scenario for physical climate changes according to scenario A1B.


Interdisciplinary effort

  •     Atmospheric Science (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU)
  •     Toxicology (AU, DMU)
  •     Epidemiology (NIPH/SDU, AU)
  •     Public health economy (DMU, CAST/SDU)
  •     Energy and system analysis (RISØ, DMU/AU, DMI)

Annual mean concentrations for the year 2000


Delta functions for the year 2000

Deltafunctions


Effects included in EVA

Response
Component
Persons
Acute mortality (deaths)
SO2, O3
All
Respiratory hospital admissions (cases)
SO2, PM2.5, NO3, SO4
All
Congestive heart failure (cases)
CO, PM2.5, NO3, SO4
> 65
Cerebrovascular hospital admission (cases)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
All
Chronic mortality (years of life lost)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4, Dioxin
All
Bronchodilator use (cases)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
Asthma
Cough (days)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
Asthma
Lower respiratory symptoms (days)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
Asthma
Chronic bronchitis (cases)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
> 16
Restricted activity days (days)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
> 16
Lung cancer (cases)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
> 16
Infant mortality (cases)
PM2.5, NO3, SO4
Baby
Loss of IQ-points (points)
Bb
Baby
Loss of IQ-points (points)
Hg
Embryo



Health effects (response)  Exposure-response function  Valuation Euros (2006-prices) 
MORBIDITY (Particulate matter) 
Chronic Bronchitis  8.2E-5 cases/μgm-3 (adults)  52,962 per case 
Restricted activity days  8.4E-4 days/ μgm-3 (adults)  131 per day 
Hospital admissions 
- respiratory  3.46E-6 cases/ μgm-3  7,931 per case 
- cerebrovascular  8.42E-6 cases/ μgm-3  10,047 per case 
Congestive heart failure  3.09E-5 cases/ μgm-3  16,409 per case 
Lung cancer  1.26E-5 cases/ μgm-3  21,152 per case 
Asthma children (7.6 % < 16 years) 
- bronchodilator use  1.29E-1 cases/ μgm-3  23 per case 
- cough  4.46E-1 days/ μgm-3  59 per day 
- lower respiratory symptoms  1.01E-1 days/ μgm-3  16 per day 
Asthma adults (5.9 % > 15 years) 
- bronchodilator use  2.72E-1 cases/ μgm-3  23 per case 
- cough  2.8E-1 days/ μgm-3  59 per day 
- lower respiratory symptoms  1.01E-1 days/ μgm-3  16 per day 
MORTALITY 
Acute mortality (SO2)  7.85E-6 cases/ μgm-3  2,111,888 per case 
Chronic mortality (PM)  1.138E-3 YOLL/ μgm-3  (>30 years)  77,199 per YOLL 
Infant mortality (PM)  4.68E-5 cases/ μgm-3 (> 9 months)  3,167,832 per case 
Acute mortality (O3)  3.27E-6*SOMO35 cases/  μgm-3  2,111,888 per case 



Health-Cost Externalities for Europe and Denmark

Totalcosts(Euros,2006prices)

  DK
All emissions 
DK
Power plants 
DK
Road traffic 
International
BS+NS Ships 
   Total  Danish  Total  Danish  Total  Danish  Total  Danish 
SO2  3.53E+07  1.52E+07  1.36E+07  3.95E+06  4.28E+06  1.86E+06  1.48E+09  1.45E+08 
SO4  1.20E+09  9.20E+07  1.12E+08  9.21E+06  8.73E+06  3.07E+05  1.19E+10  3.48E+08 
TotS SO2+SO4  1.24E+09  1.07E+08  1.25E+08  1.32E+07  1.30E+07  2.17E+06  1.34E+10  4.93E+08 
O3  1.08E+08  -4.34E+07  5.88E+06  -1.20E+06  -2.50E+07  -3.31E+07  -1.18E+09  -2.14E+07 
NO3  2.43E+09  3.20E+08  2.81E+08  1.87E+07  7.12E+08  9.92E+07  1.20E+10  3.40E+08 
TotN (O3+NO3)  2.54E+09  2.77E+08  2.87E+08  1.75E+07  6.87E+08  6.61E+07  1.08E+10  3.18E+08 
PM2.5  3.21E+08  1.38E+08  7.83E+06  1.31E+06  6.19E+07  3.20E+07  -  - 
CO  5.05E+05  1.57E+05  4.41E+03  4.98E+02  2.82E+05  1.01E+05  3.28E+04  1.93E+03 
TOTAL  4.10E+09  5.22E+08  4.20E+08  3.20E+07  7.62E+08  1.00E+08  2.42E+10  8.10E+08 




Power production prices in Euro per installed MWh

No additional CO2-price



CO2 price: 25€/tCO2



CO2 price: 50€/tCO2


All prices based on WEO2007 fuel prices


Balmorel simulations for year 2030


Case SO2, NOx, CO and PM2.5 pricing CO2 price, Euro/t
Run1 no 0
Run2 yes 10
Run3 yes 25
Run4 yes 50
Run5 yes 0
Run6 no 50


Heat and Power Generating Capacity Available at the End of a Simulation Year

H&PCap_Tot_NLP.jpg


CEEH model chain




Dato: 06-May-2009