Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and
Decisions, 10-12 March 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark
Economic optimization of the Danish energy systems
-through minimization of direct costs as well as indirect costs related to air born pollution and anthropogenic climate change
Eigil Kaas1, M. S. Andersen2, A Baklanov3, J Brandt2, H Brønnum-Hansen4, J. H. Christensen2, L. M. Frohn2, A Groos3, K Karlsson5, M.-L. Siggaard-Andersen1, T. Sigsgaard6, J. Sørensen7
1)
Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
2) National Environmental Research Institute, Århus University
3) Danish Meteorological Institute
4) National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark
5) RISØ DTU, National Institute for Sustainable Energy
6) Institute of Public Health, Århus University
7) CAST, University of Southern Denmark
2) National Environmental Research Institute, Århus University
3) Danish Meteorological Institute
4) National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark
5) RISØ DTU, National Institute for Sustainable Energy
6) Institute of Public Health, Århus University
7) CAST, University of Southern Denmark
See abstract -->
See presentation in pdf
CEEH is sponsoredby the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007
Main output:
- Economically optimized future energy systems for parts of Northern Europe at different time horizons.
- Global externality costs related to the local emissions are included in the optimization process. Considered so far: health and global climate.
Plus a large number of bi-products
Inputs
Main input:
- Economic growth
- Global energy prizes
Additional inputs:
- State of the art energy technology catalogue
- Population and health data, local demography (including future assumptions)
- IPCC scenario for global/hemispheric particle emissions according to scenario A1B.
- Global/hemispheric/regional weather evolution in year 2000.
- Global “climate cost” of one kilogram of CO2 emission.
- IPCC scenario for physical climate changes according to scenario A1B.
Interdisciplinary effort
- Atmospheric Science (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU)
- Toxicology (AU, DMU)
- Epidemiology (NIPH/SDU, AU)
- Public health economy (DMU, CAST/SDU)
- Energy and system analysis (RISØ, DMU/AU, DMI)
Annual mean concentrations for the year 2000
Delta functions for the year 2000
Effects included in EVA
| Response | Component | Persons | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acute mortality (deaths) | SO2, O3 | All | ||
| Respiratory hospital admissions (cases) | SO2, PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | All |
||
| Congestive heart failure (cases) | CO, PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | > 65 | ||
| Cerebrovascular hospital admission (cases) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | All | ||
| Chronic mortality (years of life lost) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4, Dioxin | All | ||
| Bronchodilator use (cases) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | Asthma | ||
| Cough (days) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | Asthma | ||
| Lower respiratory symptoms (days) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | Asthma | ||
| Chronic bronchitis (cases) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | > 16 | ||
| Restricted activity days (days) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | > 16 | ||
| Lung cancer (cases) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | > 16 | ||
| Infant mortality (cases) | PM2.5, NO3, SO4 | Baby | ||
| Loss of IQ-points (points) | Bb | Baby | ||
| Loss of IQ-points (points) | Hg | Embryo |
| Health effects (response) | Exposure-response function | Valuation Euros (2006-prices) |
|---|---|---|
| MORBIDITY (Particulate matter) | ||
| Chronic Bronchitis | 8.2E-5 cases/μgm-3 (adults) | 52,962 per case |
| Restricted activity days | 8.4E-4 days/ μgm-3 (adults) | 131 per day |
| Hospital admissions | ||
| - respiratory | 3.46E-6 cases/ μgm-3 | 7,931 per case |
| - cerebrovascular | 8.42E-6 cases/ μgm-3 | 10,047 per case |
| Congestive heart failure | 3.09E-5 cases/ μgm-3 | 16,409 per case |
| Lung cancer | 1.26E-5 cases/ μgm-3 | 21,152 per case |
| Asthma children (7.6 % < 16 years) | ||
| - bronchodilator use | 1.29E-1 cases/ μgm-3 | 23 per case |
| - cough | 4.46E-1 days/ μgm-3 | 59 per day |
| - lower respiratory symptoms | 1.01E-1 days/ μgm-3 | 16 per day |
| Asthma adults (5.9 % > 15 years) | ||
| - bronchodilator use | 2.72E-1 cases/ μgm-3 | 23 per case |
| - cough | 2.8E-1 days/ μgm-3 | 59 per day |
| - lower respiratory symptoms | 1.01E-1 days/ μgm-3 | 16 per day |
| MORTALITY | ||
| Acute mortality (SO2) | 7.85E-6 cases/ μgm-3 | 2,111,888 per case |
| Chronic mortality (PM) | 1.138E-3 YOLL/ μgm-3 (>30 years) | 77,199 per YOLL |
| Infant mortality (PM) | 4.68E-5 cases/ μgm-3 (> 9 months) | 3,167,832 per case |
| Acute mortality (O3) | 3.27E-6*SOMO35 cases/ μgm-3 | 2,111,888 per case |
Health-Cost Externalities for Europe and Denmark
Totalcosts(Euros,2006prices)
| DK All emissions |
DK Power plants |
DK Road traffic |
International BS+NS Ships |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Danish | Total | Danish | Total | Danish | Total | Danish | |
| SO2 | 3.53E+07 | 1.52E+07 | 1.36E+07 | 3.95E+06 | 4.28E+06 | 1.86E+06 | 1.48E+09 | 1.45E+08 |
| SO4 | 1.20E+09 | 9.20E+07 | 1.12E+08 | 9.21E+06 | 8.73E+06 | 3.07E+05 | 1.19E+10 | 3.48E+08 |
| TotS SO2+SO4 | 1.24E+09 | 1.07E+08 | 1.25E+08 | 1.32E+07 | 1.30E+07 | 2.17E+06 | 1.34E+10 | 4.93E+08 |
| O3 | 1.08E+08 | -4.34E+07 | 5.88E+06 | -1.20E+06 | -2.50E+07 | -3.31E+07 | -1.18E+09 | -2.14E+07 |
| NO3 | 2.43E+09 | 3.20E+08 | 2.81E+08 | 1.87E+07 | 7.12E+08 | 9.92E+07 | 1.20E+10 | 3.40E+08 |
| TotN (O3+NO3) | 2.54E+09 | 2.77E+08 | 2.87E+08 | 1.75E+07 | 6.87E+08 | 6.61E+07 | 1.08E+10 | 3.18E+08 |
| PM2.5 | 3.21E+08 | 1.38E+08 | 7.83E+06 | 1.31E+06 | 6.19E+07 | 3.20E+07 | - | - |
| CO | 5.05E+05 | 1.57E+05 | 4.41E+03 | 4.98E+02 | 2.82E+05 | 1.01E+05 | 3.28E+04 | 1.93E+03 |
| TOTAL | 4.10E+09 | 5.22E+08 | 4.20E+08 | 3.20E+07 | 7.62E+08 | 1.00E+08 | 2.42E+10 | 8.10E+08 |
Power production prices in Euro per installed MWh
No additional CO2-price
CO2 price: 25€/tCO2
CO2 price: 50€/tCO2
All prices based on WEO2007 fuel prices
Balmorel simulations for year 2030
| Case | SO2, NOx, CO and PM2.5 pricing | CO2 price, Euro/t |
|---|---|---|
| Run1 | no | 0 |
| Run2 | yes | 10 |
| Run3 | yes | 25 |
| Run4 | yes | 50 |
| Run5 | yes | 0 |
| Run6 | no | 50 |
Heat and Power Generating Capacity Available at the End of a Simulation Year
CEEH model chain
